The Power of the Missed Continuation Bet

The continuation bet (also called cbet) is a powerful poker move, which I explained in an earlier article. In this article I also explained that the continuation bet is a relative old concept, for which counter strategies have been developed and good opponents do adapt if you continuation bet continuously and mindlessly.

In the first article on continuation betting I argued that a cbet of 2/3rd pot is successfully if your opponents folds at least 1/3rd of the times. While this is undoubtfully true, it is also misses some depth. In this article I will address the topic of continuation betting more comprehensive and I also argue that not betting can be more profitable in certain situations than cbetting.

In front or behind on the flop
Although the theory on cbetting and its profitability if your opponent is folding a certain percentage is correct, it does not take into account whether you are in front on the flop (you do have the best hand on the flop) or behind. Taking this into account may lead to the conclusion that checking is more profitable than cbetting.

For instance, you have pocket queens and you have openraised 3 BB’s on the button and only the big blind has called your raise. Now the flop comes K 8 2 rainbow. Now we assume a simplified range for our opponent for the purpose of this example. Our opponent has either KQ, pocket tens, or 65 suited. If we cbet our opponent will call with KQ 100%, will call with pocket tens 50% and fold 50% and will fold with 65 suited 100%.
Now we do not cbet and the turn is a blank 2. Our opponent will bet KQ 100%, bet pocket tens 50% and check call 50% and bet 65 suited 100% as a bluff. If our opponent checks again we bet. In all cases we call his bet. Putting this in a scheme we get.
Scenario 1 We continuation bet:

We assume that we cbet 4 BB’s. The pot on the flop is 6.5 BB’s (open raise of 3 BB’s + call + small blind). If our opponent has KQ we lose 4 BB’s. If he has pocket tens we 50% 10.5 BB’s and 50% 6.5 BB’s. Finally if our opponent has 65 suited we win 6.5 BB’s. Our expected value is this 1/3*-4 BB’s + 1/3 ( ½ *10.5 BB’s + ½*6.5 BB’s) + 1/3*6.5 BB’s = -8/6 BB’s + 17/6 BB’s +13/6 BB’s = 22/6 BB’s = 3.67 BB’s.

Now we do not continuation bet and the turn is a blank 2 and if our opponent checks we bet:

The pot on the flop is again 6.5 BB’s. If our opponent has KQ he bets and we call 100% and we lose 4 BB’s (we assume that our opponent bets 4 BB’s). If our opponent has pocket tens we win 10.5 BB’s, both when he bets or check/calls. If our opponent has 65 suited, he will bet and we win 10.5 BB’s. Our expected value is 1/3*-4BB’s + 1/3*10.5 BB’s + 1/3 +10.5 BB’s = -4/3 + 22/3 = 18/3 = 6 BB’s
Checking the turn is thus more profitable than betting in this example. Why is checking more profitable in this example:
• Opponents may turn “air” hands into a bluff
• Opponents may bet/call more with a marginal hand
• You may not lose more if your opponent has you beaten

In our example our opponent turned 65 suited into a bluff. He also was inclined to put more money in the pot with pocket tens when we checked the flop. Finally, when our opponent has KQ it is indifferent if we bet or check the flop.
Checking the flop also includes some dangers and disadvantages
• Opponents get a free card, which improve their hand
• Opponents may own you

If a 10 turn comes in our example, out opponent has hit a 2 outer, which he would not have gotten if we had bet and he had folded. Our opponent may also pot bet 65 suited on turn and the river, after which we might fold. In that case we have folded the best hand and our opponent has owned us.
Of course our example is an oversimplification of real situations. In real situations our opponent’s range is larger and may be less clear. Also board textures are often less dry. Moreover, we didn’t take river play into account. Therefore, some considerations which you should take into account, whether to cbet or to check:

• Position. Position is an important factor in the decision to cbet or to check. Playing out of position is much more difficult and give your opponents more possibilities to own you.
• Knowing your opponent. The better you know your opponent, the more profitable is checking. If your opponent, in our example, is a super tight and will only bet with at least a King, we can safely fold the turn. On the other hand if our opponent is over aggressive and will bet 100% of his range on the turn if checked too, we should call 100% of his turn bets.
• Good opponents will know that you check a hand behind with showdown value and are given the opportunity to play perfectly against you. On the other hand we know that he knows
• Pot control. Aggressive opponents may check raise you often either as a bluff or as value. If you have a marginal hands, this may put you in difficult spots, especially on wet boards. Checking behind helps you controlling the pot size in these situations.

Checking the flop instead of continuation betting is a sophisticated play, which may be more profitable. However, pulling this move successfully requires judgment on the situation and especially. Especially against mediocre player it can be a successful play. Finally, an example, in which I checked the flop, after which my opponent turned their hand into a bluff: